5 Novel Metrics
The following metrics go beyond conventional box score statistics by leveraging advanced modeling techniques to more accurately capture a player’s on-field impact. Many are built using proprietary models, while others enhance traditional metrics by integrating contextual data like field position, defensive pressure, and team dynamics. In several cases, these metrics directly improve upon the UFA standard set, addressing key limitations such as lack of context or missing edge cases.
5.1 Involved Offensive Efficiency (IOE)
Measures the frequency with which a team scores on possessions when a player is directly involved (via a throw or catch attempt). This offers a clearer lens into individual offensive impact than traditional possession-based metrics.
5.2 Involved Efficiency Improvement (IEI)
Represents the difference between a player’s IOE and their team’s baseline offensive efficiency. By isolating how much a player’s involvement enhances team outcomes, IEI improves on raw efficiency stats that ignore individual impact.
5.3 Offensive Involvement (OI)
Quantifies how often a player is active on offensive possessions, either through throws or receptions. OI serves as a proxy for on-field offensive usage.
5.4 Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (aOE)
Calculates a player’s offensive efficiency relative to an expected baseline that accounts for teammate quality, defensive strength, and starting field value. This contextualized approach refines previous efficiency metrics by accounting for the surrounding conditions of each possession.
5.5 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (aDE)
Calculates a player’s defensive efficiency relative to an expected baseline that accounts for teammate quality, opponents offensive strength, and starting field value. This contextualized approach refines previous efficiency metrics by accounting for the surrounding conditions of each possession.
5.6 Offensive Possessions (oOpportunities)
The number of offensive possessions a player participated in during a game or season. We enhance this metric by counting only possessions where a throw is attempted. For example, if a team starts on defense, gets a block, but then a timeout is called before a throw occurs and player substitutions take place, the UFA would count this as an offensive possession. However, we exclude this from our count, ensuring that only true offensive possessions are considered.
5.7 Defensive Possessions (dOpportunities)
The number of defensive possessions a player participated in during a game or season. We refine this measure by only counting possessions where the player is actively defending during a throw attempt. For example, if a team gets a block but the offensive team calls a timeout before any throw is made, the UFA counts this as a defensive possession. However, we exclude these situations from our count, ensuring that only defensive possessions involving an actual throw attempt are considered.
5.8 Plus-Minus (PM)
A net impact score incorporating blocks, goals, assists, throwaways, drops, stalls, and half hockey assists. This improves upon UFA’s version by adding stalls and hockey assists, enabling better tracking of execution errors and value-added actions.
5.9 Thrower Expected Contribution (T-EC)
Captures the value added (or lost) by a throw, based on the change in field value from start to end point. Unlike yardage metrics that focus on physical distance, T-EC emphasizes impact on scoring potential, and penalizes turnovers by incorporating their negative effect on opponent scoring probability.
5.10 Receiver Expected Contribution (R-EC)
Measures how much a receiver contributes to field value progression, based on movement and catch location. Drops are penalized similarly to turnovers, reflecting their defensive consequences. This refines traditional receiving yardage by tying it directly to scoring impact.
5.11 Total Expected Contribution (Total EC)
Combines the thrower and receiver EC into a single play-level score, offering a complete view of offensive progression. This holistic metric enhances standard “total yards” by focusing on contribution to scoring, not just distance gained.
5.12 Thrower Adjusted Expected Contribution (T-aEC)
Scales T-EC by the average value of a goal-scoring possession, allowing thrower contributions to be compared across different game contexts. This contextual adjustment makes T-aEC conceptually similar to “assists minus execution errors,” offering an improved alternative to traditional throwing yards.
5.13 Receiver Adjusted Expected Contribution (R-aEC)
Normalizes R-EC using the same goal-scaled approach, enabling fair comparison of receiver performance regardless of starting field position or defensive pressure. This makes R-aEC conceptually comparable to “goals minus drops.” improving on receiving yards.
5.14 Total Adjusted Expected Contribution (Total aEC)
Adds T-aEC and R-aEC to produce a single, adjusted value for a player’s impact on a given play. Designed to be comparable to “goals plus assists minus drops, throwaways, and stalls,” this provides a more accurate and comprehensive scoring analog when compared to total yards.
5.15 Expected Completion Probability (xCP)
Predicts the likelihood of a throw being completed using a model that includes thrower, receiver, and situational variables. Captures the difficulty of the throw, offering an estimate of expected success.